Corinthians vs Atletico Paranaense: Atletico Paranaense to win
Corinthians host Atletico Paranaense with a slight edge according to the model, which gives the home side a 40.6% chance of winning. The market implies Atletico Paranaense have a 21.3% chance of winning, which is lower than the model's 30.5% probability, indicating some value in the away win.
| Bookmaker | Corinthians | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.29 | 4.46 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.93 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
| BetAnything | 1.94 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.94 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.93 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.84 | 3.12 | 4.05 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.70 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.40 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.91 | 3.20 | 4.00 |
| Betsson | 1.92 | 3.20 | 4.15 |
| Betway | 1.91 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
| BoyleSports | 1.91 | 3.10 | 4.20 |
| Casumo | 1.87 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.93 | 3.25 | 4.30 |
| Coolbet | 1.98 | 3.30 | 4.20 |
| Everygame | 1.90 | 3.15 | 4.33 |
| GTbets | 1.93 | 3.28 | 4.24 |
| Grosvenor | 1.87 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.83 | 3.15 | 4.50 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.81 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.89 | 3.20 | 4.33 |
| Matchbook | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.92 | 3.20 | 4.15 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.81 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.87 | 3.10 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.95 | 3.28 | 4.50 |
| Sky Bet | 1.85 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Smarkets | 2.00 | 3.30 | 4.60 |
| Tipico | 1.87 | 3.10 | 4.30 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.79 | 3.15 | 4.10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.87 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.87 | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.93 | 3.25 | 4.25 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.81 | 3.10 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.86 | 3.20 | 3.95 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.82 | 3.15 | 3.85 |
The Brasileirão match between Corinthians and Atletico Paranaense is set to be a closely contested encounter, with both teams having shown strong form in their recent outings. Corinthians' home record has been solid, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, while Atletico Paranaense have been impressive on the road, with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game.
Bez's Verdict
The model gives Atletico Paranaense a 30.5% chance of winning, which is higher than the market-implied probability of 21.3%, indicating some value in this bet. Atletico Paranaense's recent form and the head-to-head record suggest they have a good chance of causing an upset.
Show the maths
With Corinthians averaging 1.2 expected goals and Atletico Paranaense averaging 1.0, the model gives a 55.8% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 44.2% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.2 (Corinthians 1.2 + Atletico Paranaense 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 62.3% chance against 37.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Corinthians at 40.6%, the draw at 28.9%, and Atletico Paranaense at 30.5% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 13.3% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Corinthians
Corinthians have been solid at home, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, and have won three of their last five games, including a recent win against a strong opponent.
Atletico Paranaense
Atletico Paranaense have been impressive on the road, with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game, and have won four of their last five games, including a recent win against a top-six side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between the two teams points to a tight match, with Corinthians having won three of the last five meetings and Atletico Paranaense winning none, with the most recent meeting ending in a 0-1 win for Corinthians.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2026 | Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
| 11 Sep 2025 | Corinthians 2-0 Atletico Paranaense | Copa Do Brasil |
| 28 Aug 2025 | Atletico Paranaense 0-1 Corinthians | Copa Do Brasil |
| 17 Oct 2024 | Corinthians 5-2 Atletico Paranaense | Serie A |
| 23 Jun 2024 | Atletico Paranaense 1-1 Corinthians | Serie A |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | Corinthians | Draw | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 2.00 | 3.35 | 4.70 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.62 (Matchbook) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.60 (Matchbook) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
Corinthians: Alex Santana (Thigh Injury), F. Angileri (Yellow Cards), M. Depay (Rest), Hugo (Knee Injury)
Atletico Paranaense: Dantas (Suspended), Mycael (Leg Injury), B. Zapelli (Ankle Injury), Felipinho (Muscle Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
Given the model's probabilities and the market odds, there appears to be some value in backing Atletico Paranaense to win, despite their lower implied probability. The away team's recent form has been strong, with four wins in their last five games, and they may be able to cause an upset against a Corinthians side that has been solid but not spectacular at home.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org