Coritiba vs Cruzeiro: Coritiba to win
Coritiba and Cruzeiro meet in a crucial Brasileirão fixture, with the model indicating a slight edge on the home side despite the market implying lower chances, with Coritiba's expected goals at 1.2. The head-to-head record shows a mixed bag, but Coritiba have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning two of the last three encounters.
| Bookmaker | Coritiba | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.40 | 3.32 | 2.24 |
| 888sport | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| Bet Victor | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| BetAnything | 3.47 | 3.32 | 2.24 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.47 | 3.32 | 2.24 |
| Betano (UK) | 3.25 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.20 | 3.12 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.55 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| Betfair | 3.55 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Betfred (UK) | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Betsson | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.22 |
| Betway | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| BoyleSports | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.10 |
| Casumo | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.23 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.35 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Coolbet | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Coral | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| Everygame | 3.30 | 3.15 | 2.20 |
| GTbets | 3.22 | 3.22 | 2.25 |
| Grosvenor | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.23 |
| Ladbrokes | 3.20 | 3.25 | 2.25 |
| LeoVegas | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.18 |
| LiveScore Bet | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.14 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.32 | 3.25 | 2.19 |
| Matchbook | 3.55 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.22 |
| PMU (FR) | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.14 |
| Paddy Power | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
| Pinnacle | 3.45 | 3.27 | 2.26 |
| Sky Bet | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.15 |
| Smarkets | 3.55 | 3.35 | 2.34 |
| Tipico | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.15 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.25 | 3.15 | 2.05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.23 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.23 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.20 |
| Virgin Bet | 3.15 | 3.15 | 2.14 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.15 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 3.10 | 3.15 | 2.05 |
This match is significant for both teams as they seek to climb the Brasileirão table. Coritiba, with a home goals-for average of 1.2, will look to capitalize on their familiar surroundings to secure a vital win.
Bez's Verdict
The model's probability of 38.3% for a Coritiba win presents a better value compared to the market-implied 28.2%, making this the most attractive pick. Coritiba's ability to score, with an expected goals figure of 1.2, is slightly higher than Cruzeiro's 1.1, further supporting this selection.
Show the maths
With Coritiba averaging 1.2 expected goals and Cruzeiro averaging 1.1, the model gives a 53.4% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 46.6% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.3 (Coritiba 1.2 + Cruzeiro 1.1) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 59.6% chance against 40.4% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Coritiba at 38.3%, the draw at 28.3%, and Cruzeiro at 33.4% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-1 at 13.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Coritiba
Coritiba's recent form has been inconsistent, with a record of WWLLD in their last five league games, indicating a need for them to stabilize their performance to achieve a win.
Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro's form, with a record of DWDWL in their last five league games, shows a mix of draws and wins, but their away performances have been particularly concerning with an average of 1.9 goals conceded.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between Coritiba and Cruzeiro shows that Coritiba have won two of the last three meetings, including a 2-1 win in their most recent encounter.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 6 Feb 2026 | Cruzeiro 1-2 Coritiba | Serie A |
| 11 Nov 2023 | Coritiba 1-0 Cruzeiro | Serie A |
| 16 Jul 2023 | Cruzeiro 0-0 Coritiba | Serie A |
| 9 Oct 2021 | Coritiba 0-3 Cruzeiro | Serie B |
| 6 Jul 2021 | Cruzeiro 0-0 Coritiba | Serie B |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | Coritiba | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3.55 | 3.40 | 2.34 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.22 (Matchbook) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.80 (Matchbook) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
Coritiba: S. Gomez (Head Injury), Vini Paulista (Yellow Cards), Fabinho (Inactive), Rodrigo Rodrigues (Ankle Injury)
Cruzeiro: Cassio (Knee Injury), Fagner (Yellow Cards), Gabriel Pec (Broken Leg), Kaua Prates (Hamstring Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
Given these statistics, the focus should be on the match result, where the model indicates an edge on Coritiba to win. Their recent form, although inconsistent with a record of WWLLD in the last five league games, combined with their home advantage, makes them a viable candidate for the win.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org