CF Montreal vs New England Revolution: Under 2.5 goals
CF Montreal hosts New England Revolution with a model-estimated 48.3% chance of winning, outpacing the market-implied probability. The model suggests the draw is overvalued at 3.96, with a calculated probability of 28.7%.
| Bookmaker | CF Montreal | Draw | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.24 | 3.96 | 3.01 |
| 888sport | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Bet Victor | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| BetAnything | 2.27 | 3.54 | 3.06 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.27 | 3.54 | 3.06 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.05 | 3.32 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.28 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.28 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Betsson | 2.28 | 3.55 | 3.05 |
| Betway | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.80 |
| Casumo | 2.23 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Coolbet | 2.25 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| Coral | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.87 |
| Everygame | 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.95 |
| GTbets | 2.22 | 3.78 | 2.98 |
| Grosvenor | 2.20 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.10 | 3.40 | 2.87 |
| LeoVegas | 2.12 | 3.45 | 2.95 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.28 | 3.65 | 3.05 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.14 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.21 | 3.46 | 3.02 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.18 | 3.48 | 3.00 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.28 | 3.55 | 3.05 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.15 | 3.45 | 2.90 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.55 | 3.08 |
| Sky Bet | 2.20 | 3.50 | 2.88 |
| Smarkets | 2.26 | 3.55 | 3.05 |
| Tipico | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.95 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.05 | 3.30 | 2.85 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.23 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.23 | 3.55 | 3.00 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.14 | 3.40 | 2.88 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.60 | 2.90 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.10 | 3.45 | 2.85 |
CF Montreal welcomes New England Revolution to their home ground, looking to reverse their recent run of form which has seen them lose four of their last five league games. The task will not be easy, given New England's ability to score, albeit their away form has been patchy.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model indicates a 65.0% probability of under 2.5 goals being scored in this match, which aligns with the defensive solidity of both teams and their season averages. Given CF Montreal's home goals-against average of 1.0 and New England's away goals-for average of 0.8, a low-scoring affair is anticipated.
Show the maths
With CF Montreal averaging 1.3 expected goals and New England Revolution averaging 0.8, the model gives a 59.9% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 40.1% it gives to both teams scoring.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 2.1 (CF Montreal 1.3 + New England Revolution 0.8) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 65.0% chance against 35.0% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has CF Montreal at 48.3%, the draw at 28.7%, and New England Revolution at 23.0% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 15.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
CF Montreal
CF Montreal's recent form has been underwhelming, with four losses in their last five league games, including two consecutive defeats at home. Despite this, their home goals-for average remains respectable at 1.3 goals per game.
New England Revolution
New England Revolution has shown inconsistency on the road, with their away form being a concern. They have a goals-for average of 0.8 and a high goals-against average of 1.8 in away games, which could be exploited by CF Montreal.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between CF Montreal and New England Revolution shows a recent dominance by New England, including a 3-0 win in their last meeting, but CF Montreal has also had victories, indicating a competitive history between the two teams.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Apr 2026 | New England Revolution 3-0 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 7 Feb 2026 | New England Revolution 1-2 CF Montreal | Friendlies Clubs |
| 25 Jul 2025 | New England Revolution 1-3 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
| 31 May 2025 | CF Montreal 0-3 New England Revolution | Major League Soccer |
| 18 Sep 2024 | New England Revolution 2-2 CF Montreal | Major League Soccer |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | CF Montreal | Draw | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 2.28 | 3.96 | 3.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.76 (1xBet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.17 (BetOnline.ag) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
CF Montreal: F. Amaya (Lower-Body Injury), W. Carmona (Knee Injury), T. Gillier (Concussion), B. Hidalgo (Groin Injury)
New England Revolution: L. Campana (Hamstring Injury), A. Farrell (Lower-Body Injury), I. Feingold (Lower-Body Injury), A. Yusuf (Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
Considering the statistics and recent performances, the match seems likely to be closely contested, with neither side dominating. The draw is priced at 3.96, but the model suggests this outcome is less likely than the market implies, giving it a 28.7% chance.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org