New York City FC vs Toronto FC: New York City FC to win
New York City FC are strong favourites to beat Toronto FC, with a 72.7% chance of winning according to the model, and their home form has been impressive with an average of 2.4 goals scored. The away team's chances are rated at 10.6%, significantly higher than the market-implied 18.2% for a Toronto FC win is actually an underestimation, but the model points towards a home win.
| Bookmaker | New York City FC | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.38 | 5.09 |
| 888sport | 1.61 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Bet Victor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| BetAnything | 1.64 | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.64 | 4.10 | 5.10 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.80 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.58 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 4.10 | 5.40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 3.95 | 4.95 |
| Betway | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.75 |
| BoyleSports | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Casumo | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| Coolbet | 1.63 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| Coral | 1.61 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Everygame | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
| GTbets | 1.68 | 3.98 | 4.82 |
| Grosvenor | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.61 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.65 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.52 | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.61 | 4.05 | 4.90 |
| Matchbook | 1.70 | 4.20 | 5.50 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.64 | 3.90 | 4.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 3.95 | 4.95 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.53 | 3.95 | 5.10 |
| Paddy Power | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.03 | 4.98 |
| Sky Bet | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Smarkets | 1.69 | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| Tipico | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.56 | 3.65 | 4.40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.30 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.52 | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.60 | 3.90 | 4.40 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.58 | 3.80 | 4.30 |
New York City FC host Toronto FC in an MLS matchup that sees the home side as clear favourites. With New York City FC's strong home record, having averaged 2.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, they will be looking to assert their dominance over a Toronto FC side that has struggled on the road, averaging just 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.
Jonesy's Verdict
The model gives New York City FC a 72.7% chance of winning, significantly higher than the market-implied probability for a Toronto FC win, and their strong home form along with the head-to-head record supports this pick. The expected goals of 2.4 for New York City FC and 0.8 for Toronto FC also point towards a home win.
Show the maths
With New York City FC averaging 2.4 expected goals and Toronto FC averaging 0.8, the model gives a 50.0% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 50.0% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
Show the maths
Combined expected goals of 3.2 (New York City FC 2.4 + Toronto FC 0.8) points to an open game, with the model giving Over 2.5 Goals a 61.9% chance against 38.1% for Under.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has New York City FC at 72.7%, the draw at 16.6%, and Toronto FC at 10.6% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 2-0 at 11.7% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
New York City FC
New York City FC have been in good form, with a record of WDLWW in their last five league games, and their home goals-for average of 2.4 goals per game is among the best in the league. The home side will be looking to build on this momentum against Toronto FC.
Toronto FC
Toronto FC have struggled in their recent away games, with a record of LLDDL in their last five league games, and their away goals-for average of 0.8 goals per game is a significant concern. They will need to improve their attacking performance if they are to get a result against New York City FC.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between the two teams is heavily in favour of New York City FC, with the home side winning four of the last five meetings, including a 3-1 victory in their most recent encounter.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | New York City FC 3-1 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 26 Apr 2025 | Toronto FC 0-1 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 11 May 2024 | Toronto FC 2-3 New York City FC | Major League Soccer |
| 16 Mar 2024 | New York City FC 2-1 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
| 24 Sep 2023 | New York City FC 3-0 Toronto FC | Major League Soccer |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | New York City FC | Draw | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 1.70 | 4.38 | 5.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 (1xBet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.17 (Casumo) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
New York City FC: D. Baiera (Knee Injury), A. Martinez (Knee Injury), M. Moralez (Knee Injury), A. O'Neill (Ankle Injury)
Toronto FC: M. Cimermancic (Thigh Injury), N. Gomis (Thigh Injury), Matheus Pereira (Groin Injury), N. Palacio (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
Given the model's match-result probabilities and the significant difference in expected goals, the most likely outcome of this match is a New York City FC win. The model's top scorelines, including a 2-0 and 1-0 victory for the home side, further support this view.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org