Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United FC: Atlanta United FC DNB
Philadelphia Union host Atlanta United FC with the model suggesting the visitors are undervalued at 4.8, given their 26.8% chance of winning. The expected goals rates of 0.9 for Philadelphia and 0.7 for Atlanta suggest a low-scoring affair.
| Bookmaker | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 4.46 | 4.43 |
| 888sport | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Bet Victor | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
| BetAnything | 1.73 | 4.06 | 4.43 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.73 | 4.06 | 4.43 |
| Betano (UK) | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.33 |
| Betclic (FR) | 1.60 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 1.74 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Betfair | 1.74 | 4.10 | 4.60 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.40 |
| Betfred (UK) | 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.33 |
| Betsson | 1.70 | 3.95 | 4.70 |
| Betway | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| BoyleSports | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Casumo | 1.68 | 3.95 | 4.70 |
| Coolbet | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Coral | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| Everygame | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| GTbets | 1.76 | 3.96 | 4.59 |
| Grosvenor | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.60 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.65 | 3.80 | 4.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.72 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| LiveScore Bet | 1.61 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.69 | 3.98 | 4.35 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.68 | 3.90 | 4.30 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.70 | 3.95 | 4.70 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.63 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.70 | 4.11 | 4.49 |
| Sky Bet | 1.67 | 3.90 | 4.20 |
| Smarkets | 1.73 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Tipico | 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 1.59 | 3.65 | 4.05 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.68 | 3.95 | 4.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.68 | 3.95 | 4.70 |
| Virgin Bet | 1.61 | 3.75 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 1.64 | 3.95 | 4.10 |
| Winamax (FR) | 1.62 | 3.85 | 4.00 |
This MLS clash between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United FC is a meeting of two teams with diverging recent form. Philadelphia come into this match on the back of a pair of wins following a loss and a draw, showing some resilience. In contrast, Atlanta have struggled with consistency, with their last five games yielding only one win.
Jonesy's Verdict
Atlanta United FC at 4.8 offers value considering the model gives them a 26.8% chance of winning, higher than the market-implied 20.8%. This, combined with their ability to secure draws and the low-scoring nature of the expected match, makes them a decent pick on the DNB market.
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With Philadelphia Union averaging 0.9 expected goals and Atlanta United FC averaging 0.7, the model gives a 70.1% chance at least one side fails to score, ahead of the 29.9% it gives to both teams scoring.
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Combined expected goals of 1.6 (Philadelphia Union 0.9 + Atlanta United FC 0.7) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 78.3% chance against 21.7% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has Philadelphia Union at 38.2%, the draw at 35.1%, and Atlanta United FC at 26.8% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 0-0 at 20.2% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union have shown signs of improvement with two recent wins, but their form has been inconsistent, with losses and draws interspersed with victories. Their home record shows a balance in goals for and against, averaging 0.9 in both categories.
Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC's away form has been a concern, with an average of 0.7 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities on the road. Their recent form has also been marred by losses and draws.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United FC shows variability, with Atlanta securing a significant 3-1 win in their last meeting but Philadelphia winning the encounter before that, indicating that both teams have the capability to take points off each other.
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Atlanta United FC 3-1 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 17 May 2025 | Atlanta United FC 0-1 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Philadelphia Union 3-0 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 28 Sep 2024 | Philadelphia Union 1-1 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| 14 Apr 2024 | Atlanta United FC 2-2 Philadelphia Union | Major League Soccer |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | Philadelphia Union | Draw | Atlanta United FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 1.76 | 4.46 | 4.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.65 (1xBet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.36 (1xBet) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
Philadelphia Union: P. Ndinga (Hamstring Injury), S. Korzeniowski (Knee Injury), E. Davis III (Injury), O. Makhanya (Yellow Cards)
Atlanta United FC: P. Diaz (Transfer negotiations), A. Fortune (Injury), Sergio Santos (Calf Injury), S. Alzate (Groin Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
Given the model probabilities and the recent performances of both teams, the market seems to be underestimating Atlanta United FC's chances, especially considering their recent head-to-head performances against Philadelphia. The low expected goals rates also hint at a potentially cautious game plan from both sides.
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org