D.C. United vs Nashville SC: Draw
D.C. United is favored to win with a 51.3% chance, according to the model, while the market implies a 26.5% chance of a draw. The model suggests the home team has a significant edge, with 1.6 expected goals compared to Nashville SC's 1.0
| Bookmaker | D.C. United | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.90 | 3.77 | 2.37 |
| 888sport | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Bet Victor | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| BetAnything | 2.93 | 3.48 | 2.37 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.93 | 3.48 | 2.37 |
| Betano (UK) | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Betclic (FR) | 2.80 | 3.17 | 2.15 |
| Betfair | 2.98 | 3.50 | 2.42 |
| Betfair | 2.98 | 3.50 | 2.42 |
| Betfair Sportsbook | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Betfred (UK) | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Betsson | 2.98 | 3.55 | 2.32 |
| Betway | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BoyleSports | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Casumo | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.35 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.35 |
| Coral | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Everygame | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.30 |
| GTbets | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.28 |
| Grosvenor | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.33 |
| Ladbrokes | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| LeoVegas | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.25 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.40 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.88 | 3.38 | 2.33 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.93 | 3.34 | 2.28 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.98 | 3.55 | 2.32 |
| PMU (FR) | 2.85 | 3.25 | 2.28 |
| Paddy Power | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.91 | 3.47 | 2.39 |
| Sky Bet | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Smarkets | 2.84 | 3.20 | 2.22 |
| Tipico | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Unibet (FR) | 2.75 | 3.15 | 2.10 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.35 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.35 | 2.35 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.25 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.15 |
D.C. United hosts Nashville SC on Sunday, with the home team looking to capitalize on their strong expected goals rate of 1.6. Nashville SC, on the other hand, has been impressive in their recent form, with four consecutive wins before their last loss
Jonesy's Verdict
The model suggests a 25.0% chance of a draw, which is higher than the market-implied probability of 26.5%. Given the low-scoring nature of the top model scorelines and the recent form of both teams, a draw seems like a reasonable outcome. The model's expected goals rates also suggest that both teams have the potential to score, but may struggle to do so
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With D.C. United averaging 1.6 expected goals and Nashville SC averaging 1.0, the model gives a 50.4% chance both teams find the net, ahead of the 49.6% it gives to at least one side being kept out.
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Combined expected goals of 2.6 (D.C. United 1.6 + Nashville SC 1.0) points to a tighter game, with the model giving Under 2.5 Goals a 51.8% chance against 48.2% for Over.
Show the maths
Our Poisson model, built from each side's real season scoring and conceding rates, has D.C. United at 51.3%, the draw at 25.0%, and Nashville SC at 23.7% to win.
The single most likely scoreline in our model is 1-0 at 11.9% — treat any single scoreline price with caution given how spread out the probability distribution is across a low-scoring match.
The Numbers Behind the Headline
Most likely scorelines
Model probabilities are derived from each team's real season goals-for and goals-against averages via a Poisson goal-expectancy model — not a fixed set of narrative numbers.
Form Guide — Last 5
D.C. United
D.C. United's recent form has been inconsistent, with two losses and two draws in their last five games, but they have shown the ability to score goals, with an average of 1.6 goals per game at home
Nashville SC
Nashville SC has been in impressive form, with four consecutive wins before their last loss, and they have been solid defensively on the road, with an average of 0.4 goals conceded per game
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record between the two teams suggests that Nashville SC has had the upper hand, with two wins and two draws in their last five meetings, including a 5-2 win in 2025
| Date | Result | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| 10 May 2026 | Nashville SC 2-2 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 10 Jul 2025 | Nashville SC 5-2 DC United | US Open Cup |
| 28 Jun 2025 | DC United 0-1 Nashville SC | Major League Soccer |
| 18 May 2025 | Nashville SC 0-0 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| 12 Feb 2025 | Nashville SC 4-1 DC United | Friendlies Clubs |
Odds Comparison
Best real-time prices sourced across UK & EU bookmakers. Markets move — always check the live price before betting.
| Market | D.C. United | Draw | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Match winner | 3.00 | 3.77 | 2.42 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.91 (1xBet) | ||
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.97 (1xBet) | ||
Odds shown are the best real prices found at time of writing. Always check the latest price with your bookmaker before betting. Available bookmakers and odds vary by region.
Team News
D.C. United: C. Antley (Leg Injury), G. Segal (Leg Injury), K. Rowles (Injury), S. Nealis (Broken collarbone)
Nashville SC: C. Espinoza (Lower-Body Injury), W. Madrigal (Lower-Body Injury), P. Yazbek (Muscle Injury), R. Baker-Whiting (Lower-Body Injury)
Injury records reflect the current season on file and may not capture very recent knocks — confirmed lineups land closer to kickoff.
More From This Week
Given the model's probabilities and the recent form of both teams, it seems that D.C. United has a significant edge in this match. The market's implied probability of a draw is also lower than the model's suggested probability, indicating that there may be value in betting on the draw
Prices correct at time of writing and subject to change — always check the latest odds with your bookmaker before betting. 18+ BeGambleAware.org